Action plan · all proposals
Proposed by Facts Count
Tell first-time buyers which new homes they could actually buy
Publish, scheme by scheme, which new homes are shared ownership, Your First Home, First Homes or full-price sale, with prices, release dates and local-connection rules, so residents can plan a purchase years ahead. This is a Facts Count proposal.
In five minutes
- The evidence
House price to residents’ pay (middle of the market): 7.22 times (4.90 in 2002); England 7.64 (2025 (2002 for the start of the series)), Portsmouth (E06000044).
Issue: The cost of living · Homes and homelessness. Related findings: “Too few homes are reaching completion”, “Housing costs leave less for daily life”, “Buying a home takes many more years of pay than in 2002”.
- Proposed by
- Proposed by Facts Count A proposal, not a council decision or commitment.
- Proposed lead
- Portsmouth City Council housing and planning teams, drawing on information from developers and registered providers, as a proposal
- Cost and funding
- Not costed · no funding identified. EstimateAllocatedSpentUnknown
- First move
- Anyone could start now by listing each scheme with its seller’s link and the date checked, using the Facts Count developments research as the starting list, and then ask the council to adopt or correct it.
- Success measure
- Each major housing scheme has a dated public entry listing its buying routes, number of homes, prices, release dates and eligibility rules, updated at least twice a year and corrected when schemes change. No target for the number of homes bought is proposed here; this proposal gives information and does not build or fund homes.
Suggested stages
A proposed sequence, not deadlines or funded commitments. Starting an action is not the same as its benefits arriving.
Start soon
- Publish a first table from the evidence already gathered: eight schemes, buying route named (or not found), planning stage, link to the seller and date checkedLead: Portsmouth City Council housing supply (proposed); anyone could compile it from public pagesOutput: A dated first table that says plainly where no route was foundDepends on: Sellers’ public pages and the council planning register
- Ask VIVID and Abri to confirm plots, prices, release dates and any local-connection rule for Victory Quay and Locks ReachLead: Portsmouth City Council housing supply (proposed)Output: Confirmed or “not yet set” entries for the two schemes naming shared ownershipDepends on: Provider willingness to share before prices are set
Build next
- Add Your First Home participation as developers join (the guidance reports pre-registration by the end of December 2026, applications from February 2027 and first sales from April 2027)Lead: Portsmouth City Council housing supply (proposed)Output: A column showing confirmed, declined or unknown participation for each schemeDepends on: National scheme timetable and publication of participating developers, which are not yet published
- Show the whole monthly cost of each shared ownership home beside its share price: rent on the unsold share, service charge and mortgageLead: Providers, with the council (proposed)Output: Cost comparison per home typeDepends on: Providers publishing rent and service charge terms
Longer term
- Report each year how many new homes were sold or let through each route, and how many went to buyers with a local connectionLead: Portsmouth City Council housing supply with providers (proposed)Output: Annual route-by-route sales summary
Why, and the trade-off
Buying a typical Portsmouth home now costs 7.22 times a typical resident’s full-time pay, up from 4.90 in 2002; entry-level homes cost 7.59 times entry-level pay (England: 6.99). Routes meant to help, such as shared ownership and, from 2027, Your First Home, exist nationally. Of the eight housing schemes checked on 10 November 2026, two name shared ownership, none had a published list of plots with prices and release dates, and none was confirmed as offering Your First Home or First Homes. Buyers cannot tell which new homes are within reach, or when to start saving for them.
Trade-off: The routes help people with a deposit and a steady income. The household income limits (£80,000 for shared ownership and £110,000 for Your First Home, outside London) are far above the typical resident’s full-time pay of £36,022 (individual pay, 2025, not household income), so income is rarely the first barrier; saving a deposit usually is. People who cannot buy depend on rented homes, which this proposal does not provide. Local-connection rules would favour some applicants over others and need an open basis.
Where the homes are: New homes and build sites · Local projects
Baseline House price to residents’ pay (middle of the market): 7.22 times (4.90 in 2002); England 7.64 (2025 (2002 for the start of the series)); House price to pay for entry-level homes: 7.59 times (5.41 in 2002); England 6.99 (2025 (2002 for the start of the series)); Illustrative 25% deposit on the median price: £65,000, or 1.80 years of gross pay (£24,088, 1.22 years, in 2002) (2025 (price year ending September, pay April)); Illustrative monthly repayment as a share of gross pay: 35.0% (£1,050 a month); 24.5% in 2002; 45.6% in 2023 (2025); Quoted 2-year fixed mortgage rate (75% loan to value): 5.39% in October 2026; 4.19% in September 2025; 1.20% in September 2021 (Monthly, 1996 to October 2026); Schemes naming a buying route for first-time buyers: Shared ownership at 2 of 8 schemes (Victory Quay planned, Locks Reach advertised); Your First Home or First Homes confirmed at 0 (Checked 10 November 2026)
Full appraisal
Problem, options against the current approach, costs, risks, who gains and who pays, and how progress would be judged.
Full delivery plan: problem, options, costs, risks and how to judge progress
The problem and who is affected
Buying a typical Portsmouth home now costs 7.22 times a typical resident’s full-time pay, up from 4.90 in 2002; entry-level homes cost 7.59 times entry-level pay (England: 6.99). Routes meant to help, such as shared ownership and, from 2027, Your First Home, exist nationally. Of the eight housing schemes checked on 10 November 2026, two name shared ownership, none had a published list of plots with prices and release dates, and none was confirmed as offering Your First Home or First Homes. Buyers cannot tell which new homes are within reach, or when to start saving for them.
Who is affected: Renters and younger adults on typical local pay who want to buy, including people who have saved a deposit but cannot tell which homes qualify. People with no savings or the lowest incomes are not helped by these routes; they depend on rented homes.
| Measure | Value | Period | Area |
|---|---|---|---|
| House price to residents’ pay (middle of the market) Median house price divided by median full-time resident annual pay. Individual pay, not household income or mortgage eligibility. The official series starts in 2002. | 7.22 times (4.90 in 2002); England 7.64 | 2025 (2002 for the start of the series) | Portsmouth (E06000044) |
| House price to pay for entry-level homes Lower-quartile price divided by lower-quartile resident pay. A different measure from the median ratio above. | 7.59 times (5.41 in 2002); England 6.99 | 2025 (2002 for the start of the series) | Portsmouth (E06000044) |
| Illustrative 25% deposit on the median price Facts Count illustration from the published median price and median pay, not an official statistic. A 25% deposit is the assumption behind the quoted 75% loan-to-value rate; Your First Home asks for at least 2.5%. | £65,000, or 1.80 years of gross pay (£24,088, 1.22 years, in 2002) | 2025 (price year ending September, pay April) | Portsmouth (E06000044) |
| Illustrative monthly repayment as a share of gross pay Facts Count illustration: 25-year repayment mortgage on the median price after a 25% deposit, at the September quoted 2-year fixed rate (4.19% in 2025) assumed to last the whole term; gross pay; no fees. Not a lender quote. | 35.0% (£1,050 a month); 24.5% in 2002; 45.6% in 2023 | 2025 | Portsmouth (E06000044) |
| Quoted 2-year fixed mortgage rate (75% loan to value) An average of rates lenders quote, not what any borrower paid. A national series, not specific to Portsmouth. | 5.39% in October 2026; 4.19% in September 2025; 1.20% in September 2021 | Monthly, 1996 to October 2026 | United Kingdom |
| Schemes naming a buying route for first-time buyers From the Facts Count developments research (data/counts/pompey/developments.json), a shortlist of eight substantial schemes, not every application. Full-price homes at St James Park are advertised from £324,950, below the reported Your First Home price cap for Portsmouth (£340,000); whether the developer will take part is unconfirmed. | Shared ownership at 2 of 8 schemes (Victory Quay planned, Locks Reach advertised); Your First Home or First Homes confirmed at 0 | Checked 10 November 2026 | Portsmouth City Council area |
What this would change
Aim: People who want to buy can see in one place which new homes are available through which route, at what price and from when, so they can plan their savings and eligibility.
What success would mean: Each major housing scheme has a dated public entry listing its buying routes, number of homes, prices, release dates and eligibility rules, updated at least twice a year and corrected when schemes change. No target for the number of homes bought is proposed here; this proposal gives information and does not build or fund homes.
Publish a table with one row per major scheme. For each it would separate four stages: promised in a planning agreement, advertised for sale, reserved or sold, and completed. It would show the route (shared ownership, Your First Home, First Homes, full price), the number of homes, the price or share price, the whole monthly cost of shared ownership (rent and service charge as well as the mortgage), the release date and any local-connection rule. It would draw on planning agreements, the seller’s own pages and the national scheme rules, and mark anything not found as not found.
Proposed lead: Portsmouth City Council housing and planning teams, drawing on information from developers and registered providers, as a proposal. Partners: VIVID, Abri and other registered providers, Developers of the schemes (Vistry, PJ Livesey, Bellway and others), Homes England, Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government (national scheme rules), Independent homeownership advice services, if the council wants a signposting partner.
Powers: The council can publish planning and housing information, and can set local-connection criteria only where national rules and the planning agreement allow (see GOV.UK scheme rules). It cannot make a private developer join Your First Home, set a developer’s prices or release dates, or oblige a registered provider to publish plots. Whether the council can require sales information to be shared after permission has not been checked here.
Options
A table improves planning, not affordability. Different routes suit different households: shared ownership adds rent and service charges, and the Your First Home equity loan is repaid at the home’s then value and becomes interest-bearing after five years (as summarised from GOV.UK). Publishing sales information early may not be possible where developers have not set prices. If few schemes offer any route, the table will show that gap rather than fill it.
Delivery plan
| Stage | Task | Proposed lead | Dependencies and decisions | Output |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Start soon | Publish a first table from the evidence already gathered: eight schemes, buying route named (or not found), planning stage, link to the seller and date checked | Portsmouth City Council housing supply (proposed); anyone could compile it from public pages | Depends on: Sellers’ public pages and the council planning register | A dated first table that says plainly where no route was found |
| Start soon | Ask VIVID and Abri to confirm plots, prices, release dates and any local-connection rule for Victory Quay and Locks Reach | Portsmouth City Council housing supply (proposed) | Depends on: Provider willingness to share before prices are set | Confirmed or “not yet set” entries for the two schemes naming shared ownership |
| Build next | Add Your First Home participation as developers join (the guidance reports pre-registration by the end of December 2026, applications from February 2027 and first sales from April 2027) | Portsmouth City Council housing supply (proposed) | Depends on: National scheme timetable and publication of participating developers, which are not yet published | A column showing confirmed, declined or unknown participation for each scheme |
| Build next | Show the whole monthly cost of each shared ownership home beside its share price: rent on the unsold share, service charge and mortgage | Providers, with the council (proposed) | Depends on: Providers publishing rent and service charge terms | Cost comparison per home type |
| Longer term | Report each year how many new homes were sold or let through each route, and how many went to buyers with a local connection | Portsmouth City Council housing supply with providers (proposed) | Decision: Whether providers and developers agree to share sales data | Annual route-by-route sales summary |
A first practical step: Anyone could start now by listing each scheme with its seller’s link and the date checked, using the Facts Count developments research as the starting list, and then ask the council to adopt or correct it.
Costs and funding
- One-off costs
- Not costed. Mainly officer time to compile and check a first table.
- Recurring costs
- Not costed. Twice-yearly updates would need staff time from housing and planning.
- Capital or revenue
- Revenue only. The proposal does not itself fund or build any home.
- Funding status
- No funding identified for the table or its upkeep.
- Affordability
- Not appraised. Direct cost looks low, but staff capacity in planning and housing has not been assessed.
- Costing still needed
- Estimate staff days per update across about eight schemes, plus any legal advice on publishing sales information and local-connection rules.
Benefits, risks and trade-offs
Possible benefits: Buyers could plan deposit saving, income eligibility and timing against real homes, and could see which large schemes offer no route to ownership. These benefits are not quantified.
Risks:
- A published table could be read as an offer or promise when prices, plots and dates are the seller’s and can change.
- Developers and providers may not share information early, leaving many rows marked “not found”.
- Shared ownership and equity loans can leave buyers with rent, service charges and a later repayment; a table that shows only prices could mislead.
- Routes reach people with some savings and income; they do not help the lowest-income households.
- Local-connection rules may favour existing residents over people moving for work.
Who could gain or lose: The routes help people with a deposit and a steady income. The household income limits (£80,000 for shared ownership and £110,000 for Your First Home, outside London) are far above the typical resident’s full-time pay of £36,022 (individual pay, 2025, not household income), so income is rarely the first barrier; saving a deposit usually is. People who cannot buy depend on rented homes, which this proposal does not provide. Local-connection rules would favour some applicants over others and need an open basis.
Capacity: Compiling, checking and updating the table needs planning, housing and legal staff time that is not assessed or allocated here.
How to judge progress
| Measure | Definition | Starting point | Source and area | How often · who reports |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public buyer table for major schemes | A dated public table listing route, homes, price, release date and eligibility for each major scheme | None found at 10 November 2026 Gap: No such table exists to measure; the first table would set the baseline. | Not available · Portsmouth City Council area | Twice a year (proposed) · Not agreed |
| Schemes with route, price and release date published | Number of the major schemes whose public entry gives the buying route, plot prices and release dates | 0 of 8 schemes had a published plot list with prices and release dates (shared ownership advertised at one, prices expected in autumn) | vivid-victory-quay · Portsmouth City Council area | Twice a year (proposed) · Not agreed |
| House price to residents’ pay | Median house price divided by median full-time resident annual pay; shown with the entry-level (lower quartile) ratio | 7.22 (entry-level 7.59), 2025 | ons-aff2-ratio · Portsmouth (E06000044) | Annual · Office for National Statistics |
| Illustrative deposit and repayment as a share of gross pay | Facts Count illustration with stated assumptions: 25% deposit in years of gross pay; first-year repayment as a share of gross pay | 1.80 years; 35.0% (2025) Gap: Not an official statistic and not a measure of any household’s eligibility. | boe-iumbv34 · Portsmouth (E06000044) | Annual (proposed) · Facts Count |
| Homes sold or let through each buying route | New homes completed and sold or let by route: shared ownership, Your First Home, First Homes, full price | No published baseline Gap: No local route-by-route sales count was found. | Not available · Portsmouth City Council area | Annual (proposed) · Not agreed |
Reassess when: Reassess when Your First Home opens for applications, when VIVID or Abri publish plots and prices, when the Local Plan is adopted, or if ONS publishes a materially different ratio.
Where things stand
What is known:
- In 2025 the middle sale price was 7.22 times the middle full-time resident pay in Portsmouth (4.90 in 2002).
- Shared ownership is planned at Victory Quay and advertised at Locks Reach, with prices expected in the autumn.
- Your First Home has not yet opened; its guidance reports pre-registration by the end of December 2026 and first sales from April 2027.
- No Portsmouth First Homes plot or local First Homes criteria were found.
What is not known:
- How many Victory Quay homes will be shared ownership, at what prices and when.
- Whether any developer will take part in Your First Home in Portsmouth.
- Portsmouth’s First Homes local criteria and price cap, if any.
- Whether local-connection rules will apply at the schemes that name shared ownership.
- How many Portsmouth households could use each route.
Decisions needed:
- Whether the council will publish and maintain a scheme-by-scheme buyer table.
- What basis, if any, the council will use to ask developers and providers for early information.
- How local-connection rules would be set and explained.
Existing work:
- Shared ownership marketing at Locks Reach (Abri): Advertised with a reservation fee; prices expected in autumn; whether Locks Reach is exactly the 58 homes permitted is not confirmed (as of 2026-11-10).
- Your First Home (national scheme): Approved nationally; applications expected from February 2027; participating developers not yet published (as of 2026-11-03).
- First Homes (national scheme): Exists nationally; no Portsmouth plot or local criteria found (as of 2026-11-10).
- Victory Quay (VIVID): Under construction; shared ownership planned; plots and prices not published (as of 2026-11-10).
UK Facts context: Housing remedies (National options and funding mechanisms; not a Portsmouth assessment.)
Next review: When Your First Home opens for applications or when VIVID or Abri publish plots and prices.. Evidence last checked 2026-11-10.
Sources
House price to residence-based earnings ratio (Tables 1 to 6) ↗ · Median price paid for administrative geographies (read from data/processed/community/housing-history.json) ↗ · Quoted household interest rates (IUMBV34) ↗ · Shared ownership scheme: who can apply ↗ · First Homes guidance ↗ · Your First Home (guidance updated 3 November 2026) ↗ · Lifetime ISA ↗ · Victory Quay project page ↗ · Locks Reach, Locksway Road ↗ · St James Park, Southsea ↗ · 21/01357/FUL, awaiting decision ↗UK-wide context
Sources
- House price to residence-based earnings ratio (Tables 1 to 6) checked 2026-11-10
- Median price paid for administrative geographies (read from data/processed/community/housing-history.json) checked 2026-11-10
- Quoted household interest rates (IUMBV34) checked 2026-11-10
- Shared ownership scheme: who can apply checked 2026-11-10
- First Homes guidance checked 2026-11-10
- Your First Home (guidance updated 3 November 2026) checked 2026-11-10
- Lifetime ISA checked 2026-11-10
- Victory Quay project page checked 2026-11-10
- Locks Reach, Locksway Road checked 2026-11-10
- St James Park, Southsea checked 2026-11-10
- 21/01357/FUL, awaiting decision checked 2026-11-10