Why money feels tight · immigration
The figures show more people are moving to Portsmouth from abroad. They do not show that this has cut anyone’s pay. The best national research is mixed: small effects on pay, and possible upward pressure on house prices where building is slow.
This page sets out what is measured, by whom and how sure they are. It does not take a side.
1 · What the figures show
Net moves from and to other countries, year to 30 June
Portsmouth council area · people
Shown on this chart: 769 people in 2012; 1,644 people in 2025. 113.8% higher between these observations. Highest 6,986 people in 2023.
The line joins consecutive published observations.
Hover or tap the chart for a value. Use the date slider with touch or arrow keys. Escape closes the chart label.
Source: Office for National Statistics ↗ · retrieved 11 Nov 2026
For the UK-wide picture, see immigration on UK Facts ↗ (national figures, not Portsmouth; use your browser’s Back button to return).
Migration figures are modelled estimates; recent years rely on administrative data that ONS calls partly uncertain. Census 2011 and 2021 are separate snapshots, so the born-abroad shares are not an annual trend.
Click-through
Census snapshots, not an annual trend. “Born outside the UK” is not the same as nationality or immigration status: it includes people who are now British citizens.
| Area | 2011 | 2021 | Change (percentage points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth | 12.2% | 16.9% | +4.7 |
| Southampton | 17.6% | 24.1% | +6.5 |
| England | 13.8% | 17.4% | +3.6 |
Source: Office for National Statistics (Census 2021), Census 2011 and 2021 ↗. Each Census is a snapshot on one day in March.
What migrants contribute
In March 2021, 20,336 Portsmouth residents aged 16 and over who were born outside the UK were in employment.
| Where born | In employment |
|---|---|
| Europe outside the UK and Ireland | 10,154 |
| Middle East and Asia | 5,342 |
| Africa | 3,039 |
| Americas and Caribbean | 1,213 |
| Ireland | 304 |
| Antarctica and Oceania | 284 |
| Total born outside the UK | 20,336 |
Source: Office for National Statistics, Economic activity status by country of birth (RM017), Census 2021 ↗ (served by Nomis), Census Day 21 March 2021, retrieved 11 November 2026. Census Day was during the pandemic; ONS advises care in using 2021 labour-market results. Census counts are rounded and lightly adjusted for disclosure control, so totals can differ slightly between tables.
2 · What research says
These are national studies, not Portsmouth ones. Where they disagree, both views are shown.
The Committee concluded that migration is not a major factor in the pay of UK-born workers.
It found some evidence that lower-skilled workers lose out and higher-skilled workers gain, but described the size of these effects as generally small.
Limit: National average finding; some individual studies it reviewed pointed in different directions. Does not tell us what happened to any one person's pay.
Migration Advisory Committee (UK Government): EEA migration in the UK: final report ↗
The Oxford briefing reports that most studies find small or no effects of immigration on wages and jobs for UK-born workers.
Where effects are found, they tend to be slightly negative for the lowest paid and slightly positive for the highest paid. One 2022 study it cites put the loss for the lowest earners at around half a penny on the hourly wage per year over 1994 to 2016.
Limit: National, pre-2016 data in the study cited. The briefing says it knows of no comparable studies yet on post-Brexit migration. Studies differ in method and results.
The Committee found that migration from the European Economic Area had little or no effect on whether UK-born workers overall were in work or unemployed.
It said effects might differ between groups, with more negative effects for lower-skilled workers and more positive effects for higher-skilled workers, and that these results were uncertain.
Limit: National evidence on EEA (mostly European) migration to 2018, before free movement ended; not about Portsmouth and not about later, mostly non-EU, migration.
Migration Advisory Committee (UK Government): EEA migration in the UK: final report ↗
The Committee's own analysis found that migration has put upward pressure on house prices, and that the effect is larger where it is harder to build more homes.
Its estimate was that a one percentage point rise in population from migration goes with about a one per cent rise in house prices. It warned the results are sensitive to how the analysis is set up.
Limit: Contested and uncertain by the authors' own account. Covers house prices only, not rents. National, local-authority panel data to 2018. The Committee said housing impacts cannot be separated from planning and house-building policy.
Migration Advisory Committee (UK Government): EEA migration in the UK: final report ↗
The Committee set its estimate beside two others.
A government housing-model calculation put the effect of immigration on prices much higher, around 20 per cent over 1991 to 2016, but the Committee listed limits to that approach, such as assuming that supply did not respond. A published academic study found that immigration lowered local house prices, possibly because existing residents moved away, and found no effect across regions.
Limit: Shows how far estimates disagree. These are older studies of national or local-authority patterns. They do not measure Portsmouth.
Migration Advisory Committee (UK Government): EEA migration in the UK: final report ↗
The Committee's commissioned research found that EEA migrants overall paid more in tax than they received in benefits, with large differences between households.
The Committee also said funding formulae may not give areas extra resources when local demand for services rises.
Limit: EEA migrants only, based on pre-2018 data. Public finances are a separate question from a household's own pay or housing costs. Rules and migrant mix have changed since.
Migration Advisory Committee (UK Government): EEA migration in the UK: final report ↗
The Oxford briefing says any wage effect is likely to be greatest for workers who are themselves migrants, because earlier and newer migrants more often compete for the same kinds of jobs. It also says the evidence on training is mixed. The Migration Observatory, University of Oxford ↗
3 · Closer to home
What people think
The questions differ, so the two figures are not comparable and are not a trend.
19% named immigration among the most important issues in their local area
Survey-based evidence YouGov, 26th - 27th March 2026. Adults in Great Britain, 2,104 people.
Question: “What do you think are the most important issues facing your LOCAL AREA at this time? Please tick up to three.”
59% named it among important issues facing the UK
Survey-based evidence Office for National Statistics, 2 to 27 September 2026. Adults aged 16 and over in Great Britain.
Question: “What do you think are important issues facing the UK today?”
What is missing
| Year to June | Births minus deaths | Moves within UK | Moves from and to abroad | Population |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | +1,126 | −1,301 | +769 | 205,729 |
| 2013 | +1,022 | −1,639 | +1,234 | 205,905 |
| 2014 | +1,046 | −1,476 | +1,106 | 206,200 |
| 2015 | +946 | −351 | +1,550 | 207,873 |
| 2016 | +940 | −161 | +1,724 | 209,951 |
| 2017 | +709 | +31 | +1,086 | 210,965 |
| 2018 | +651 | −894 | +1,372 | 211,215 |
| 2019 | +543 | −2,019 | +1,627 | 210,412 |
| 2020 | +519 | −1,905 | +1,491 | 209,142 |
| 2021 | +361 | −3,627 | +2,251 | 207,119 |
| 2022 | +293 | −2,498 | +4,548 | 209,614 |
| 2023 | +279 | −3,092 | +6,986 | 213,939 |
| 2024 | +417 | −5,519 | +4,041 | 212,936 |
| 2025 | +235 | −3,234 | +1,644 | 211,475 |
Components do not sum to the whole change because of a small “other” item (armed forces and adjustments). Mid-2021 to mid-2025 total change is 4,356; without moves from abroad the same period would have shown −12,863.
Sources: Office for National Statistics, population estimates ↗; Census: Office for National Statistics (Census 2011) ↗; Office for National Statistics (Census 2021) ↗; Home Office, asylum support tables ↗; Migration Advisory Committee, EEA migration report (2018) ↗; Migration Observatory briefing ↗. Scripted fetch: scripts/counts/pompey/fetch/migration.py. Built by an agent; findings paraphrased and checked against the fetched sources; not independently reviewed.
